Middletown, Delaware 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

998
FXUS61 KPHI 222345
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
645 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence remains high in a major winter storm impacting the
region through Monday. Very heavy snowfall and areas of blizzard
conditions are likely.

Coastal Flood Advisories have been expanded to New Castle
County DE and Salem County NJ for tonight`s high tide cycle.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A major winter storm is expected to bring very heavy
snowfall and areas of blizzard conditions to portions of the
area through Monday.

2. Widespread coastal flooding will occur with tonight`s high
tide cycle. Moderate coastal flooding is likely for many ocean-
front and back-bay communities along the Atlantic coast with
major flooding possible. Further tidal flooding will linger into
Monday and potentially into Tuesday as well.

3...An unsettled pattern continues through this week with some
light snow expected on Tuesday Night and then another system
likely bringing some rain and snow Thursday into Thursday Night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A major winter storm is expected to bring very
heavy snowfall and areas of blizzard conditions to portions of
the area through Monday.

A potent upper trough currently centered over portions of the
Appalachians will continue to shift eastward towards the region
this afternoon and evening. A 140 kt jet streak is rounding the
base of the trough, with significant height falls and associated
ascent overspreading the region. At the surface, a rapidly
deepening low is located off the NC and VA coasts. As the low
tracks northeastward towards our region, it is expected to
continue deepening rapidly, particularly through tonight. The
low will track northeastward away from the region on Monday.

Model guidance has shifted slightly eastward across the board
as of this afternoon, but there remains good consensus that the
surface low will track close enough to the coast to bring
significant impacts to most, if not all, of the area. The GFS
and NAM have both shifted east, but still feature a deep cyclone
in the neighborhood of 970 mb tracking fairly close to the
coast, leading to significant snowfall accumulations across most
of the region. The ECM has also stopped in its northwestward
trend, but still features warning level snow across most of the
region. Other deterministic guidance remains in general
consensus with this evolution. Significant impacts from snow,
winds, and coastal flooding are still expected across much of
the area.

In addition to the surface cyclone off the coast, an inverted
trough is noted on Objective Analysis extending northwestward
across portions of central and eastern PA. These features tend
to increase snowfall amounts and rates where they set up, even
when these totals are not well-depicted by model guidance. While
this does lend confidence in significant snowfall occurring
across eastern PA, the highest amounts are expected to be near
the NJ and DE coasts. There is slightly lower confidence on
exact snowfall amounts on our western fringe, but regardless,
warning level snow is still expected everywhere.

Precipitation continues to overspread the region this
afternoon, with rates gradually increasing. As the surface low
continues its approach from the southwest, precipitation rates
should continue to increase. While most of the region is seeing
mixed precipitation currently, a changeover to all snow is
expected through this afternoon as colder air begins to
infiltrate the area in concert with the heaviest precipitation
rates. Snowfall rates could exceed 2 inches per hour where the
heaviest accumulations are forecast, primarily along and east of
I-95. The heaviest snowfall is anticipated to occur beginning
late this evening and continuing through tonight. Snow is
expected to gradually begin to taper off Monday morning, and
come to an end from west to east sometime Monday afternoon.

In terms of snowfall totals, most of eastern PA and Delmarva
are expected to receive a widespread 10 to 18 inches, though it
is possible that some western areas receive under 10 inches. The
heaviest snowfall should remain focused on New Jersey, with the
greatest potential for localized amounts near or exceeding 24
inches around Monmouth, Ocean, and southeastern Burlington
Counties where coastal convergence is maximized and heaviest
snowfall rates should occur. Farther inland, there will likely
be some topographic effects on snowfall, with locally higher
amounts possible on windward (north) sides of mountains and
ridges.

In addition to the heavy snowfall, as the low deepens tonight
into Monday, winds will begin to ramp up. Northeast winds
sustained 20-35 mph will gradually shift north then northwest,
with gusts 35-45 mph for inland areas, and up to 60 mph possible
along the coast. The snow will be heavy, wet, and sticky until
later in the event. However, blowing and drifting of snow is
certainly a concern, especially closer toward the coast where
winds will be strongest.

No changes have been made to the Blizzard or Winter Storm
Warnings. It is important to note that regardless of whether
blizzard criteria is met for any given location, the combination
of strong winds and heavy snow will lead to nearly impossible
travel conditions, as well as the potential for scattered power
outages.

Confidence remains very high in major to extreme impacts to our
region from this unfolding winter storm.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread coastal flooding will occur with
tonight`s high tide cycle. Moderate coastal flooding is likely
for many ocean-front and back-bay communities along the Atlantic
coast with major flooding possible. Further tidal flooding will
linger into Monday and potentially into Tuesday as well.

Strong onshore flow ramps up due to bombing out low pressure
off the Mid-Atlantic coast over the next 24 hours. This will
have direct impacts on tidal levels which are expected to
rapidly rise, especially for tonight`s high tide cycle. The
onshore flow will continue to pile water toward the coast
coinciding with the time of high tide. Fortunately, we will be
in between the full/new moon phase cycle which will lead to
lower astronomical tide contributions.

Confidence remains high that most of the ocean-front
communities and back bays of New Jersey and Delaware will rise
well into Moderate flood stage due to the strong background wind
field and proximity of the deepening low off the coast. There
still remains potential for some areas to reach Major flood
stage if the right ingredients all come together. The most
likely locations of Major flood stage will be from Ocean County
NJ southward to Sussex County DE, especially in the back bays
where water piling will be enhanced.

Coastal Flood Warnings remain in place for tonight`s high tide
cycle for Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Southeastern Burlington,
Atlantic, and Cape May Counties in NJ, as well as Kent and
Sussex Counties in DE where moderate to potentially major tidal
flooding will occur. Coastal Flood Advisories have been expanded
to include New Castle County in DE and Salem County in NJ for
minor tidal flooding with tonight`s high tide cycle in addition
to Cumberland County in NJ.

On Monday, winds will gradually turn to a more offshore
component, however, the deepening offshore low will continue to
keep ocean swells onshore through the day. As a result, it is
becoming more likely that another round of widespread coastal
flooding will occur with the Monday afternoon high tide within
the area currently in a Coastal Flood Warning. Some of these
areas may again reach well into moderate flood stage,
particularly in the back bays from Ocean County NJ on south.
Still some uncertainty whether widespread minor or moderate will
occur, along the ocean-front, so have opted to not extend
warnings out in time for now. However, further extensions will
likely be needed at some point. By Monday night, conditions
begin to improve, though another round of tidal flooding may
occur with the high tide late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

For the tidal Delaware River and tidal Maryland Eastern Shore,
no tidal flooding is expected.


KEY MESSAGE 3...An unsettled pattern continues through this
week with some light snow expected on Tuesday Night and then
another system likely bringing some rain and snow Thursday into
Thursday Night.

Our next system arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes and into New England
will drag a front through the region as the clipper system
grazes the area. This will produce light snowfall of around 1-3"
from Philadelphia on north, with potentially higher amounts up
to 4" possible over the Poconos and NW NJ. South of
Philadelphia, precipitation will start as snow but could change
to rain, with snow accumulations likely under an inch. This
system will be relatively minor, though cannot rule some Winter
Weather Advisories being needed north of I-78. Precipitation
should generally taper off after daybreak Wednesday morning.

The next system looks potentially stronger, but the track
supports more of a rain event for the duration of the event. Low
pressure looks to track through the Ohio River Valley up into
the Great Lakes and through New England. Inland cutters usually
result in our area being in the warm sector, and the case is no
different here. However, ahead of the warm front moving through
on Thursday evening/Thursday night, there could be some wintry
precip. Would focus most of the attention in the Poconos as this
setup could be conducive to some freezing rain, but currently
not expecting significant snow accumulations anywhere. While
there could be some flakes at onset, this mainly should be a
rain event.

The pattern should settle down for the weekend as high pressure
moves in.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Overall, IFR and LIFR conds, with VLIFR VSBYs in
1/4SM +SN and BLSN. CIGs may hover in the IFR/low end MVFR
range. Snowfall rates as high as 4 inches per hour in the
heaviest bands. NE winds, backing to the NW at 15 to 25 kt with
30 to 45 kt gusts. Strongest winds at KMIV/KACY, and winds
lighter at KRDG/KABE. Low confidence on timing details.

Monday...IFR in the morning. Conds lift to MVFR by midday along
and west of the I-95 corridor terminals, then conds will not
lift to MVFR until late in the day at KMIV/KACY. After SN ends,
BLSN may result in VSBY restrictions through the day. NW winds
15 to 20 kt with 25 to 35 kt gusts, diminishing late. Moderate
confidence overall, low confidence on timing.

Outlook...

Monday night...VFR. West-northwest wind gusts up to 25 knots.

Tuesday...VFR, then sub-VFR conditions possible at night with a
period of snow. Gusty northwest winds possible during the day.

Wednesday and Thursday...Periods of sub-VFR conditions possible with
some rain/snow.

Friday...Conditions may improve to VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A powerful coastal storm will develop across the coastal waters
through tonight. East winds 15-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts will
increase and shift northeast then north to 35-50 kts with gusts
up to 60 kts tonight. Winds will shift eventually northwestward
on Monday, before beginning to decrease by Monday afternoon and
evening. Seas 5-9 feet this afternoon, building to 12-18 feet
tonight into Monday morning before beginning to decrease.

The Storm Warning for NJ and DE Atlantic coastal waters, as
well as the lower Delaware Bay remains in effect until 6 PM
Monday. The Gale Warning for the upper Delaware Bay also remains
in effect until 6 PM Monday. The highest winds and seas will
occur overnight tonight, with gale force winds likely lingering
into Monday afternoon. Heavy snow could lead to near zero
visibility at times Sunday night through Monday morning.

Small Craft Advisory conditions Monday night, with northwest
wind gusts up to 30 kts.

Regarding the river/marine ice, Delaware Bay continues to be
mainly ice free outside of shallow near-shore areas. Ice
coverage remains around 10-30% from the the Delaware Memorial
Bridge up to the Commodore Barry Bridge. North of that up
through Philadelphia, ice coverage is around 30-70%.

Outlook...

Monday Night through Tuesday...SCA conditions expected. Wind
gusts near 25 kt, especially on Monday Night. Seas over 5 feet
will persist through Tuesday.

Tuesday Night...A brief lull in SCA conditions possible.

Wednesday through Wednesday Night...SCA conditions expected.
Winds increase out of the south/southwest around 25-30 kt and
seas 4 to 6 feet.

Thursday...No marine headlines expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The daily snowfall records for February 22 and 23 from our
climate sites listed below:

                       February 22
Site                   Record/Year
Allentown (ABE)          8.6"/1948
AC Airport (ACY)         8.0"/2001
Philadelphia (PHL)       7.0"/2001
Reading (RDG)            6.5"/1948
Trenton (TTN)            6.3"/2001
Wilmington (ILG)         5.0"/1935

                       February 23
Site                   Record/Year
Allentown (ABE)          6.5"/1987
AC Airport (ACY)         6.5"/1987
Philadelphia (PHL)       6.5"/1987
Reading (RDG)            6.5"/1994
Trenton (TTN)           11.4"/1987
Wilmington (ILG)        12.4"/1987

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Blizzard Warning until 6 PM EST Monday for PAZ054-055-070-071-
     104>106.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EST Monday for PAZ060>062-
     101>103.
NJ...Blizzard Warning until 6 PM EST Monday for NJZ001-007>010-
     012>027.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EST
     Monday for NJZ016.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EST Monday for NJZ012>014-020-
     022>027.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
     Monday for NJZ021.
DE...Blizzard Warning until 6 PM EST Monday for DEZ001>004.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EST
     Monday for DEZ001.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EST Monday for DEZ002>004.
MD...Blizzard Warning until 6 PM EST Monday for MDZ015-019-020.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EST Monday for MDZ012.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ430.
     Storm Warning until 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cooper/DeSilva/Hoeflich/Staarmann
AVIATION...Gorse/MPS
MARINE...Cooper/Hoeflich